Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?
The point is the preparation. The preparation we undertake
in case of natural disasters can change the quality of our lives if an event
should happen. The plans made, and the resources stockpiled, with different contingencies
in mind demonstrate the importance of preparation. And while the illustration
does not technically relate to scenario planning, it does highlight the
importance of preparation. Scenario planning allows us to plan or prepare for
the effects of potential futures. As demonstrated by the Shell company,
scenario planning enabled plans and preparations for a possible future, that
were extremely valuable. Scenario
planning can provide the opportunity to allow for carefully thought out
decisions or action plans for potential events, with considerations for all factors.
When faced with an unexpected situation, there is added pressure and stress is
increased. Decisions made under these conditions are what I consider reactive
decisions, and are not always the best decisions. The Shell company didn’t just
get through a difficult situation, they grew and increased their business.
While others may have been scrambling around, they already had a plan, and
could continue to work with confidence and efficiency. The preparation they
undertook was extremely worthwhile and had a significant impact on their
company.
(Funnily enough when writing the above the ground started
shaking!)
I like your point about reactive decisions. Christchurch would be a strong example for this. A lot of reactive decisions were (and still continue) to be made. Given our governments 3 yr cycle of elections- how many of their decisions could be considered reactive? If we could see inside John Keys office would his scenario planning be for NZ or for the National party? (the same question could be asked of the other parties too). Do they plan for us, the citizens, or for their parties future? I enjoyed reading your post by the way.
ReplyDeleteExcellent point and good reflection!
ReplyDeleteSo in theory if we can prepare for a few plausible scenarios (on the assumption that we can't accurately predict the future) we have a better chance that our preparations (current decisions) will provide a better fit for multiple futures.